The big game is the worst place to judge an idea

So we predicted what would happen after the final whistle

…Using XQ™, Created by BJ Kito

The championship broadcast amplifies everything – attention, reaction, and distortion.


It’s the biggest stage in advertising, but it’s also the noisiest. When budgets peak and expectations spike, even well-made ideas can appear stronger than they are.

To understand what actually lasts, we evaluated game day advertising before they aired (for the first time ever), measuring how ideas behave once the spotlight fades and pressure sets in.

This isn’t a recap. It’s a stress test.

The Amplified Plateau

Why most game day ads win the night – and lose the decade

When exposure peaks, endurance becomes harder to detect. The biggest advertising moment of the year creates a temporary environment where attention is inflated and scrutiny is delayed. Inside that insulation, most campaigns perform well.


But amplification changes how ideas behave. 

Once that moment passes, brands face very different forces – repetition, skepticism, cultural memory, and time. Some ideas strenthen under that pressure. Most do not. 

That gap between momentary success and long-term value is what we call the amplified plateau.

Insulation vs. Reality

Why the real test starts after the broadcast ends

The first question asked is usually: “Did people like it?” Super Bowl ads benefit from temporary insulation – novelty, goodwill, and collective attention. These conditions protect ideas from immediate stress. 

But that insulation doesn’t last. 


The real test begins after the game ends, when the more critical question is examined: Once the hype fades, will this idea hold up, or does it fall apart under real-world pressure?

That question rarely gets measured. Until now.

Introducing the XQ Index™

What XQ is and why it exists

The XQ Index is an intelligence framework designed to evaluate whether ideas can survive reality and how they’ll behave as pressure increases.


It was built to answer a question traditional marketing metrics don’t address: not what performs in the moment, but what endures over time. 


XQ doesn’t judge creativity or predict popularity. It evaluates structural strength.

What XQ Measures (And What It Doesn’t)

Most advertising metrics track reaction – views, engagement, sentiment, recall. 


XQ looks underneath those signals, at the forces that determine whether attention turns into belief, ownership, and lasting brand value. 


XQ does not measure:

  • Virality
  • Likeability 
  • Awards potential 

XQ evaluates:

  • Narrative clarity and coherence
  • Cultural and ethical alignment 
  • Resilience under scrutiny and repetition 
  • Brand ownership potential
  • Fragility introduced by scale 

How the XQ Index works

Each idea is evaluated across 109 variables spanning human behavior, culture, brand integrity, executional risk, and long-term relevance.

The Analysis

16 Super Bowl ads, evaluated for long-term success before kickoff for the first time ever

We analyzed 16 Super Bowl ads using XQ scoring before they aired. 


The goal wasn’t to guess which ads would trend. It was to understand which ideas were structurally built to last once Super Bowl insulation disappeared.

Field Zones

Where Super Bowl ads actually land

Super Bowl spots don’t fail because they’re bad. They fail because most are built to peak fast. Field zones show where an idea is likely to land after the hype fades: how durable it is, how much it can own, and how quickly it decays.

Mythic 190-200

Owned worldview capable of absorbing attention and evolving without collapsing

Magnetic 160-189

High durability and cultural ownership with significant equity potential

Amplified 120-159

Strong performance optimized for attention with controlled volatility

Resonant 80-119

Clear brand alignment with moderate cultural impact 

Functional 40-79

Limited staying power and minimal long-term equity building

Inert 0-39

Minimal impact or cultural resonance

Long-Term Equity Potential

Out of the ads analyzed, only a small number show real long-term equity upside. A handful reinforce positions brands already own. Most perform well in the moment — Magnetic under amplification, but structurally disposable once attention fades.

RANKINGS

Game day ads, scored for survivability

Michelob Ultra — Rocky on the Slopes

Field Zone:

Amplified

XQ Score: 138.7/200

A winter-sports training spot riffing on Rocky IV to reinforce Michelob Ultra’s “active lifestyle → earned refreshment” lane.

Turbo Tax — Now This Is Taxes

turbo tax commercial still

Field Zone:

Amplified

XQ Score: 135.0/200

A “calm expert” platform that makes tax season feel manageable by turning competence into something culturally fluent.

State Farm — Halfway There Insurance

state farm commercial still

Field Zone:

Amplified

XQ Score: 132.6/200

A fictional competitor turns “mediocre coverage” into a tangible villain, sharpening State Farm’s reliability through contrast.

Uber Eats — Conspiracy Platform

Field Zone:

Amplified

XQ Score: 129.1/200

A recurring conspiracy universe that treats delivery like a cultural constant. Audiences tune in to see the “logic” expand.

Pringles — Once You Pop/Sabrina Carpenter

pringles commercial still

Field Zone:

Resonant

XQ Score: 118.2/200

A pop-culture injection into a legacy tagline — high moment energy, lighter long-term structure.

Hellmann’s — Meal Diamond

hellmans commercial still

Field Zone:

Resonant

XQ Score: 117.1/200

A comfort-forward reframing of mayo as “meal glue,” designed to live in everyday food decision moments.

Boehringer Ingelheim — Health Screening

Field Zone:

Resonant

XQ Score: 109.4/200

A PSA-style, credibility-led message built for trust and action rather than spectacle.

Pepsi Zero Sugar — Polar Bear

pepsi commercial still

Field Zone:

Resonant

XQ Score: 101.3/200

A rivalry spectacle designed to trigger debate and taste-switching behavior using an aggressive symbolic move.

Instacart — Produce Picker

Field Zone:

Resonant

XQ Score: 97.6/200

A micro-feature story that converts an everyday annoyance into product differentiation.

Ro — GLP-1 Beyond Weight Loss

Field Zone:

Resonant

XQ Score: 90.4/200

A high-demand category move that reframes GLP-1s around health outcomes, with real upside and real scrutiny.

Manscaped — Hair With an Eye

Field Zone:

Functional

XQ Score: 78.6/200

A niche humor brand doing what it does best — clear ownership, limited mass comfort.

Liquid I.V. — Bathroom Vanity

Field Zone:

Functional

XQ Score: 76.7/200

An intimacy-first tonal contrast that risks leaving viewers entertained but unclear on purpose.

Ritz — Shell-Phone / Bowen Yang

Field Zone:

Functional

XQ Score: 73.9/200

A clever surreal moment that wins on tone, loses on why Ritz is essential.

Fanatics — Kardashian Curse

Field Zone:

Functional

XQ Score: 65.8/200

A pop-culture reference built to spark chatter, but with limited proprietary brand meaning.

Bud Light — Wedding Road Trip

bud light commercial still

Field Zone:

Functional

XQ Score: 42.5/200

A stabilization ad: designed to be safe, familiar, and non-provocative while the brand rebuilds integrity.

Svedka

Field Zone:

Inert

XQ Score: 33.2/200

An AI-forward dance concept that signals novelty without earned brand truth, emotional stakes, or clear product meaning.

What the Super Bowl Rewards – and What It Doesn’t

The Super Bowl is exceptionally good at producing one outcome: high attention with low tolerance for failure. 


Most of this year’s work is polished, likable, culturally fluent, and safe. It performs exactly as intended in the moment and then quickly returns to baseline. 

This isn’t a creative failure. It’s a structural one.

Amplified is the new default

Across the field, most campaigns land in the same place: amplified.


They generate conversation.


They avoid failure.


They perform cleanly in the moment.


That level of performance is no longer exceptional. It’s the industry’s comfort zone.


When Amplified becomes the default, the Super Bowl stops separating ideas by strength and starts flattening them by restraint. You get competence instead of conviction. Entertainment instead of ownership. Noise instead of endurance.


Only a small number of ideas have the structural capacity to absorb amplification without losing their shape — to hold meaning once the moment passes.

When Attention Lies

XQ scoring doesn’t measure whether an ad “worked.” It separates ideas that create belief from ideas carried by attention. It shows when amplification is reinforcing meaning and when it’s masking weakness. 

That line is where brands compound equity or stall without realizing it.

What Comes Next

This case study proves something the industry hasn’t been able to see clearly before.

XQ makes it possible to evaluate ideas before they hit the world — not for how they perform in the moment, but for how they behave once pressure, scale, and scrutiny set in. Applied here, it shows why so many Super Bowl ads peak fast and why only a few have the structure to endure.

As media gets louder and stakes get higher, advantage won’t come from guessing better or testing harder. It will come from knowing which ideas can survive reality and which can’t.

This case study is the first signal of that shift.

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